Solar Market in Ukraine 2025–2026: Analytical Report
Published March 2026 · Updated July 2026 · By HOMEDOME Research · Українська версія
Executive summary. In 2025 Ukraine installed 1.5 GW of new solar capacity — roughly double the 2024 figure. Total installed PV capacity exceeds 6.8 GW (56% of all renewables). The number of household prosumers doubled year-on-year to 100,000+. The household grid tariff rose to 4.32 UAH/kWh, while the green (feed-in) tariff for new residential stations is fixed at 5.8768 UAH/kWh (≈0.13 EUR/kWh, EUR-pegged). Battery energy storage (BESS) became the defining trend: DTEK commissioned a 200 MW / 400 MWh system — the largest in Central-Eastern Europe.
Key market indicators
| Indicator | 2024 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| New installations (GW) | 0.8 | 1.5 | +88% |
| Total PV capacity (GW) | 5.3 | 6.8+ | +28% |
| Residential PV (MW) | 650 | 1,200+ | +85% |
| Prosumer households | ~50,000 | 100,000+ | +100% |
| DTEK Grids: green-energy connections | ~2,500 | 5,144 | +106% |
Regional leaders by prosumer connections (DTEK Grids data): Kyiv region — 2,804 sites, Odesa region — 887, Dnipropetrovsk region — 872. Average residential system size grew from 5–8 kW (2023) to 8–12 kW (2025–2026, HOMEDOME data).
Electricity tariffs: history and forecast
| Period | Household tariff, UAH/kWh | Status |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 1.68 | historical |
| 2024 | 2.64 | NEURC |
| 2025 – H1 2026 | 4.32 (day) / 2.16 (night) | fixed until 30 Apr 2026 |
| H2 2026 (forecast) | 4.75–5.18 | expert estimate |
| 2028–2030 (forecast) | 6.0–8.5 | macro forecasts |
The household tariff rose 157% between 2023 and 2025 and is forecast to grow another 40–97% by 2028–2030. Rising tariffs — not feed-in income — are the primary motivation for going solar: 85% of HOMEDOME customers cite "protection from tariff growth" as their main driver.
Green tariff 2026
Under NEURC resolution No. 2263 (30 Dec 2025), the feed-in ("green") tariff for residential stations up to 30 kW is 5.8768 UAH/kWh excl. VAT (≈0.13 EUR/kWh; the rate is EUR-pegged and recalculated quarterly, fixed at commissioning). The scheme runs until 31 December 2029 for household stations; income is taxed at 23% (18% PIT + 5% military levy). In March 2026, law No. 4777-IX extended the renewable-support auction mechanism for businesses from 2029 to 2034.
Equipment costs (HOMEDOME, 2026)
| System | Configuration | Turnkey price |
|---|---|---|
| 5 kW hybrid | panels + hybrid inverter + 5 kWh LiFePO4 | from 155,000 UAH |
| 10 kW hybrid | panels + hybrid inverter + 10 kWh LiFePO4 | from 310,000 UAH |
| 15 kW hybrid | panels + hybrid inverter + 15 kWh LiFePO4 | from 420,000 UAH |
System prices fell 15–20% versus 2023, driven by panel and LiFePO4 cost declines (LiFePO4 down 20–25% in 2024–2025). The state 5-7-9% concessional-loan program covers solar and storage: 9% annual rate for households, 5–7% for SMEs.
HOMEDOME field data (85+ installed projects, 2024–2025)
| Metric | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Most popular system | 10–12 kW hybrid | 78% of projects |
| Battery choice | LiFePO4 | 90% of projects |
| Measured generation, 10 kW (Dnipro region) | ≈11,250 kWh/year | December ≈23% of July peak |
| Residential payback | 4–5 years | self-consumption + green tariff |
| Commercial payback | 3–5 years | car wash 2–3, garage 3–4 |
| Primary motivation | protection from tariff growth | 85% of customers |
Full field dataset with the monthly generation profile: Solar Energy in Ukraine 2026 — Statistics.
Outlook 2026–2030
To meet national renewable targets, Ukraine needs ~12.2 GW of PV by 2030 (IEA / Ministry of Energy estimates), implying a 2.5–3x acceleration over the 2025 pace. Scenarios: optimistic — 4–5 GW/year from 2027; baseline — 2–2.5 GW/year reaching 10–11 GW by 2030; pessimistic — 6–7 GW total by 2030. Under every scenario household tariffs keep rising, which sustains demand for distributed solar + storage as financial and energy insurance.
For a typical Ukrainian household, a 10–12 kW hybrid system with a 10–15 kWh LiFePO4 battery pays back in 4–5 years and then delivers near-free energy for the remaining 20+ years of panel life — while providing blackout protection that grid supply cannot guarantee.
Sources
NEURC (tariff resolutions), DTEK Grids (green-connection statistics), Solar Energy Association of Ukraine (prosumer counts), IEA (2030 outlook), IRENA (BESS trends), Ministry of Energy of Ukraine (5-7-9% program), law No. 4777-IX (auction mechanism extension), HOMEDOME (field study of 85+ projects, 2024–2025). Ukrainian original: homedome.com.ua/report/ses-market-ukraine-2025-2026.
About the publisher
HOMEDOME is a solar and backup-power integrator based in Dnipro, Ukraine (est. 2019, 85+ installations, 1.6–260 kW). Company profile in English · Toll-free 0 800 447 351.